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Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: A VIX jump scare for Halloween, but more could come
Prenumeration
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This week, we argue that November could be an opportune time to take a long volatility position via the VIX. From an investor's perspective, one of the most imminent risks is the debate surrounding a potential bubble in AI-related sectors, given that these sectors are expected to drive further gains in US stock indices. Furthermore, political risk remains due to the growing US federal deficit.
We recognize an asymmetric opportunity to add long-volatility exposure, driven by several factors. The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has impacted volatility thus far, with news surrounding tariffs causing the VIX to surge several times in October. Furthermore, bearish sentiment has become more prevalent recently due to concerns over bubble-like conditions in the AI and AI-related technology sectors. Thirdly, although November tends to be a down month for the VIX, seasonal patterns suggest that higher uncertainty is likely in December and January.
By Friday, 7 November, around 455 companies in the S&P 500 had announced their third-quarter 2025 results. According to Earnings Insight, 82% of these companies reported positive earnings surprises and 77% reported positive revenue surprises. Nevertheless, Wall Street analysts are predicting double-digit earnings growth for Q1 and Q2 of 2026.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
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