Carlsquare/Vontobel weekly trading note: It’s time for Volvo shares to choose a path
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This week's case study focuses on the Volvo Group. Its share price has remained largely unchanged since early May but has recently begun to increase slightly. The Q3 2025 report was better than expected in terms of earnings. We now believe that the share price reflects a weaker outlook for sales in the North American truck market in 20026. Volvo’s US peer, Paccar, has also seen an improvement in its share price recently. Last week's interim report from Nvidia boosted the mood of the stock markets, as Nvidia's earnings and growth prospects were better than anticipated.
On 17 October, the Volvo Group reported stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2025, with operating profits coming in at around 2.5% above expectations. Alongside the Q3 2025 report, Volvo lowered the estimate for heavy truck registrations in North America in 2025 by 4%, and by a further 6% in 2026. Last week, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it would maintain the NOX reduction requirements for heavy trucks in the 2027 model year. This could lead to increased demand for the 2026 model year in the short term. Furthermore, the USD has appreciated somewhat against the SEK since 30 September 2025, which will benefit net exports and the translation of Volvo profits in the future.
On Wednesday evening, 19 November, Nvidia released an interim report that exceeded market expectations of 3%, in terms of both earnings and revenues. The communications services sector also performed strongly on Monday, 24 November, after Alphabet's share price rose by 6.3% following the launch of its Gemini 3 AI model last week.
Please find out more in our weekly letter on certificates Vontobel.com: Read the weekly newsletter here
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